China und europäische Sicherheit

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Given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing war, which has influenced European security politics in manifold ways, some might wonder why a closer look at China in this context is relevant at all. According to Dr. Oliver Thränert, Head of the CSS Think Tank, there are many reasons why we should focus on China much more than we currently do when it comes to security, also in Europe. On the one hand, there is the strong relationship between China and Russia, which the war in Ukraine has failed to weaken. On the other hand, there is also the fact that the United States see China as their biggest ideological, economic, and military opponent. This, of course, has strong implications for Europe, given that Europe is very much dependent on the United States as its key ally.

The two invited speakers, Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and an authority in the study of Cross-Strait relations, and Brian Carlson, Head of the Global Security Team of the Think Tank at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), who possesses a vast knowledge on China-Russia relations, discussed variety of issues, for example how China is undermining the liberal international order, China-Russia relations in light of the conflict in Ukraine as well as tensions with Taiwan.

A Change in the Relations between China, Europe, and most of the Western World

In her presentation, Bonnie Glaser talked about the changes in Europe’s relations with China. Over the last several years, public opinion polls have shown a deterioration in China’s relations with several countries, not only across Europe but also in most Western democracies, including the United States, Australia, Canada, as well as in South Korea and Japan. The main reason behind this, according to Glaser, are Chinese policies at home and abroad, particularly concerning human rights, such as the documented human rights abuses in Xinjiang against the Uighurs and the crushing of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, unfair trade policies and practices, different approaches to development assistance or maritime rights, mostly related to Chinese activities in the South China Sea, which challenge freedom of navigation and pose a severe threat to US interests in the region. Ms. Glaser also described Chinese economic coercion as an important factor in deteriorating views on China. She brought up the prominent examples of Norway, one of the first targets due to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee granting the internationally acclaimed award to a Chinese dissident, Australia, and Lithuania as the most recent case. China’s “pro-Russian neutrality” in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed to even higher levels of mistrust towards the Chinese leadership. Glaser explained that by sticking to this strategy, China tries to maintain its interests in Ukraine and support it as a sovereign nation without damaging its relations with Russia in any way.

Taiwan remains at Risk

Regarding tensions with Taiwan, Ms. Glaser described it as a “very dangerous issue”. War in the Taiwan strait would be catastrophic, not just for China and Taiwan but for the whole world. She presented different scenarios of how a possible war would play out and what the consequences would be. A war in Taiwan would bear much higher costs than the war in Ukraine, creating a severe economic impact across the globe. Furthermore, if a full-scale invasion in Taiwan were to be successful, China could also use its force to change the status quo in other regions where it is currently involved in territorial disputes as well, namely in the Himalayas with India, in the Japanese Sea or in the South China Sea. Despite implementing cyber warfare and exerting economic and diplomatic pressure, China hopes that it will achieve unification without fighting, not destroying Taiwan, not risking war with the United States, and not putting at risk Xi Jinping's priority goal of achieving national rejuvenation. Also, as Ms. Glaser made clear, Xi has other priorities right now, namely dealing with the consequences of the Zero-COVID policy, the slowdown of the Chinese economy and demographic challenges.

For a long time, China has called the existing international order unfair. Now it believes to have the power, resolution, and resources to challenge that. However, as Ms. Glaser stated, China is not an imminent threat to European security in the same way that Russia is. Nevertheless, there are many areas in which China poses serious threats to the interests of democracies around the world. These threats are evolving further and should not be ignored.

China still sees Russia as one of its Key Partners

In his presentation, Brian Carlson focused on China-Russia relations and why these are crucial to focus on in the context of security concerns in Europe and the West. The relationship between these two has steadily developed throughout the post-Cold War era and has gotten even closer since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The subsequent period of economic and diplomatic isolation led Russia to turn to China for support. As China’s rivalry with the United States intensified, both valued each other as partners challenging the United States and European liberal democracies’ view of the international order. Carlson also pointed out that the many commonalities in Chinese and Russian views of the international order are an important factor for their close and strong partnership. Since the invasion of Ukraine, China maintains some sort of middle ground, but was quick in siding with Russia's assessment that the West is to blame for provoking the crisis. In addition, China agrees with Russia's belief that there should be no further NATO expansion. Mr. Carlson explained that China refrains from fully endorsing Russia officially in order not to jeopardize its relations with its two major export markets, the United States and the European Union. However, it has criticized countries around the world for imposing economic sanctions on Russia, and so it has provided Russia with some rhetorical support. China also abstained from votes in the UN Security Council and General Assembly condemning the Russian invasion. Despite not having provided weapons to Russia and not having helped to evade sanctions, the Chinese regime would welcome it if Russia achieved at least some favorable outcome in Ukraine, a quick Russian win being its preferred result. Vladimir Putin is a good friend of Xi Jinping, and if he were to fall from power, the consequences might be unpredictable, Mr. Carlson stated further.

China is not happy with the Strengthening of the US-European Alliance

Opinion polls, even before the war, showed a decline in support around the world for China, to which the pandemic contributed to. China's support for Russia has hurt the perception of China in Europe and elsewhere. The imposing of sanctions against Russia has served China as a potential preview of what might happen if it were to engage in aggressive behavior by attacking Taiwan or some other target. Carlson described further that China sees the revival of the transatlantic partnership and the strengthening of the US-European alliance as not ideal from its standpoint. Xi Jinping has responded to this with ideas like the Global Security Initiative and efforts to rally support from countries in the global South and elsewhere around the world.
China’s image in the world has suffered and the country needs strong allies in its conflict with the United States and the West. Whereas Russia is often seen as a military threat in the West, China is perceived more as a challenge, especially in terms of creating economic dependencies and cyber warfare. Finally, Mr. Carlson highlighted that Russia has lost its superpower status, and, therefore, the United States must focus more on China as a real threat to their role as hegemon and security provider. This ultimately also affects key US allies in Europe.

At the end, the diverse audience had the opportunity to ask Bonnie Glaser and Brian Carlson questions.

The next ETH Evening Talk is planned for March 2023. More information will be published on the CSS website in due course.